Trade expert: “I fear an escalation”

Two months remain to prevent threatened US tariffs on European goods. But the chances are slim, says MEP Bernd Lange (SPD). "I fear that we'll see an escalation in July," the trade expert said at an appearance in Hanover. Only then could negotiations likely begin.

Donald Trump is currently trying to trumpet success on the trade front. On Thursday, the US president presented an agreement with Great Britain that aims to curb tariffs and reduce trade barriers.

On Friday, following a telephone call between Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Trump, the new German government reported that both wanted to "resolve the trade disputes quickly." This weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland to contain the conflict.

But these signals don't make Lange, who has chaired the European Parliament's Trade Committee for years, any more optimistic. "I'm skeptical," he said at the Hanover Industry Club. Washington has so far not responded to offers of negotiation.

The EU Commission has already offered a mutual reduction of industrial tariffs to zero. Mutual recognition of technical standards could also be discussed. Lange puts the trade deficit complained of by Trump into perspective: If one offsets the US surplus in services, the deficit would only be $50 billion—and even that could be offset.

But on one point, the two sides are worlds apart: Washington rejects many EU rules as "non-tariff trade barriers," such as the Digital Markets Act for large internet platforms, which American tech companies have long criticized. "In my view, that's really what it's about," says Lange, "and we won't negotiate that." These rules would apply equally to everyone and discriminate against no one.

So far, however, even the simpler issues are not being negotiated in concrete terms. Trump has suspended the "reciprocal tariffs" announced at the beginning of April—20 percent on imports from the EU—for 90 days. But a third of that period has already passed. Lange was in Washington in April, as was EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, and both plan to visit again in May.

But experience shows that nothing gets done in Washington without Trump personally, and the president prefers significantly smaller negotiating partners, says Rachel Tausendfreund of the German Council on Foreign Relations. Another obstacle, in her view, is that Trump dislikes Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

"Negotiate, defend, expand" is, according to Lange, the EU's strategy. While negotiations are slow to materialize, Brussels is threatening countermeasures – keyword: "defend." Tariffs are to be imposed on US goods worth around €100 billion annually if the US does not abandon its plans. Brussels defines "expanding" as strengthening other trade relations, such as the conclusion of the Mercosur trade agreement with South America.